Will Trump may allow the United States to join ADB?
China Yiwu a shop selling Trump campaign banner text | Zhang Mengyuan Trump President came. Although who is all fooling when talking, who is a fool, but the president of the Chinese trade in the field of "poor". He argued that China was a currency manipulator, imposing a punitive tariff of 45 per cent on imported goods in China, and that it would be necessary to rush to China for jobs and businesses. Trade - a cornerstone of the rise of the Trump nationalism, is likely to be used as a weapon to influence the two largest economies of the world, which are closely dependent on each other. But at the same time, Trump also released some ambiguous signal. He met with Kissinger to consult China, and his senior adviser thought that the United States did not join the Asian investment bank as a strategic mistake. He also firmly committed himself to withdrawing the TPP that excluded China from the "Hundred Days New Deal". Trump's businessman's president may also have different changes to Sino-US trade. What are the opportunities for Chinese companies to be elected by Trump? On November 22, China and the Globalization Think Tank (CCG), a number of senior researchers from China and the United States, discussed the Sino-US economic and trade relations after Trump's election. China and the United States may open a trade war? "We are already in a trade war," Trump said in an election campaign. "We have the power to overwhelm China, the economic power." This is quite a gunpowder, but the possibility of a real trade war between China and the United States Not big, small friction or there will be. He Ning, former director of the Ministry of Commerce, said that after the election of Trump, the world's large economic and trade situation has not changed, but also because both China and the United States are members of the WTO, there are multilateral rules of the constraints and constraints, On a large scale, Sino-US economic and trade relations will not fluctuate greatly. But these anti-dumping, countervailing trade friction between the two sides will exist, "these things are in business and economic and trade activities which appeared in some of the disputes, I do not put it and economic and trade relations between the two equal numbers, there is no certain economic and trade relations do not Ok, "he said. In addition, due to the obvious economic and trade discipline, Trump imposed 45% of China's tariff is impossible. China Yiwu a sale of Trump campaign banners shop Trump will promote the revised version of TPP? It is possible, but China and the United States should seek cooperation between the two sides to participate in the trade agreement, the lack of any side of the regional trade agreements are difficult to really play a role. "I judge, Trump up after the whole will not abandon the TPP, because after all, 12 countries talked about five years, and now also under the auspices of the United States, there are also very valuable consensus." China International Economic Cooperation Institute Wang Huiyao, vice president, said, "The future may be the basis of the new US (trade agreement), although it is from the TPP, but will not fully agree on the TPP part of the comprehensive recognition of this both bring challenges and opportunities for China , Whether China and the United States can better cooperate to TPP and RCEP together. "RCEP that" regional comprehensive economic partnership ", initiated by the ASEAN countries, invited China and South Korea and India to participate in India and India. "We should be TPP and RCEP in the valuable, common part included in the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP), do FTAAP merger and promotion." Wang Huiyao said. Can Trumps instruct the Ministry of Finance to place China as a currency manipulator? "It may not be possible," said He Weifen, a former San Francisco business counselor in San Francisco, but announced that it was not meaningful to announce that it would be useful only if it was transformed into a trade policy, but it could not be transformed and the WTO would play a binding role. The Ministry of Finance to the Congress to submit exchange rate policy report, Congress from the other side of the government's central bank transactions that there is improper exchange rate which is considered "exchange rate manipulator." If the United States to China as a currency manipulator, it must be imposed on China's severe trade sanctions, then it is likely to trigger a large-scale trade war between the two sides, and beyond the scope of the two countries, spread to the world. "We want to pay special attention to Trump after the financial problems, rather than directly declare China to manipulate the exchange rate." He Weiwen said, "he was elected, since the second week in November, the stock market and the bond market is clearly separated, especially Is the US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate record high, 30-year yield of more than 3%, which is difficult to have. "Trump to reproduce the US infrastructure Albert, China can do? Real estate businessman Trump to please the unemployed workers is very simple and crude - the construction of large projects, which is not only his good things, but also can be down the ages of the performance, as the construction of the Golden Gate Bridge and Hoover Dam, President Roosevelt. He has promised in ten years to invest 1 trillion US dollars Daxing infrastructure construction, "Let the United States once again great." This ambition is not an opportunity for China, which will not only help China to export excess industrial capacity, but also allow Trump to be able to claim that the benefits from China to recover the specific amount to the dollar. "China has developed a strong infrastructure in the past few years, which requires a lot of engineering and technology, but also need a lot of money, the United States in this part of a lot of opportunities for cooperation." Wang Huiyao said. At the same time, "Chinese enterprises can bid, bid participation, through the participation of the market," the Ministry of Commerce International Trade and Economic Cooperation, former President Huo Jianguo that although national security concerns may be a potential obstacle. Will Trump may allow the United States to join ADB? Not impossible. November 10, two days after winning the US election, James Woolsey, a senior adviser to Trumpe Defense, wrote in the South China Morning Post that the opposition of the Obama administration to Asian investment banks was a "strategic mistake" Trump is more enthusiastic about treating China's "all the way" strategy. This raises the question of whether the United States will join the Asian investment bank during the term of Trump. "We can invite the United States to join the Asian investment bank, including the invitation to participate in 'all the way' building," Wang Huiyao that "can jointly develop third-country markets, including Africa, South America and other countries." Asian investment bank in January this year, The largest shareholder to provide the largest financial support. The United States has been reluctant to join the Asian investment bank, but its major European allies have joined, indirectly marks the failure of the US initial boycott strategy.